EnergyTrend upgraded this year's global solar installations to 12GW, an increase of 84.6%. The demand for solar installations in Germany is booming. EnergyTrend, the research and development unit, upgraded the installed capacity of the global market to 12GW this year, an annual increase of 84.6%. Looking forward to next year, demand will be slowed down by the reduction of subsidies in major European countries such as Germany, Italy and Spain. However, in China, India, Japan and other regions, demand is expected to grow substantially due to the implementation of subsidy policies. In this one plus one reduction, EnergyTrend estimates that the global market installed capacity will be 13.5GW next year, an increase of 12.5%, and the growth rate will be slower.
The study pointed out that the installation volume of the German market in the first half of this year has reached 3GW, and it is expected that there will still be 3GW installations in the second half of the year. In addition, the demand of European countries such as Italy and the Czech Republic has also maintained high-end, and the capacity of solar cell factories has reached full capacity.
As the German subsidy program is more moderate than the original proposal, and the subsidy amount will be reduced to 16% in the fourth quarter, the installation estimate for the third quarter will increase significantly. EnergyTrend estimates that the installed capacity of the German market in the third quarter will increase the original 1.5GW~2GW to 2GW~2.5GW. Japan’s announcement of a new subsidy program has also kept demand in the third quarter strong, with 3.6 GW installed in the third quarter of the world.
The German Federal Parliament has agreed on the adjustment plan for the subsidy policy on July 9. According to the new program content, the original roof solar power system (Rooftop System) subsidy will be reduced by 16% on July 1 and will be divided into 2nd order implementation. The first stage will be reduced by 13% from July 1st. The second stage is Adjust again by 3% from October 1. This new solution also includes the Ground Mounted System and the Utility Market System. The first phase of the ground erection system will be lowered by 12%, the utility system will be lowered by 8%, and the second phase will be lowered by 3%.
In early July, the US government approved a solar power plant by raising $2 billion, hoping to support the US solar industry through a related subsidy program. A 280 MW solar power plant will be subsidized and the thin film solar cell industry will be subsidized. However, EnergyTrend believes that the US subsidy program still focuses on the power plant standard, and the tax policy is still based on Tax Credit, which is still not a cause for the household market.
The US state governments have also issued their own subsidy policies, which are currently most active in California, Florida, and New Jersey. According to statistics, last year the US market demand was about 480MW, of which the new installation with the grid was 440MW, while the California market was as high as 220MW, accounting for 50% of the market demand. However, the California government has recently experienced a financial crisis, and this crisis may damage the development of the California renewable energy industry market, which in turn affects the demand of the US market this year.
The subsidy policy announced by the Japanese government is expected to allocate 40.15 billion yen to subsidize residential solar power generation systems. Based on the subsidy of 70,000 yen per kilowatt, it is expected to create about 575 MW in the residential sector. Local governments in Japan have also announced subsidy policies, making the demand in the Japanese market look at 1GW this year.