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Interpretation of the development trend of the global semiconductor market

Editor: │ Release Time:2019-05-26 

Source: No public content from "China Electronics News" author: CCID Consulting, thank you.

At present, information technology technologies such as big data, cloud computing, Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence are developing rapidly, and continue to provide strong market demand for the semiconductor industry. The global integrated circuit industry will usher in a new round of development opportunities。

According to the Global Semiconductor Trade Association (WSTS) data, the global semiconductor market reached US$468.8 billion in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%. The market for analog chips, microprocessors, logic chips and memory is $58.8 billion, $67.2 billion, $109.3 billion and $158 billion, respectively. In 2018, the global memory market growth rate still led the way, reaching 27.4%; the analog chip market grew at 10.7%, the processor circuit market grew at 5.2%, and the logic chip market grew at 6.9%。

The status of the global semiconductor market

From the perspective of the scale and growth rate of the global semiconductor market, the global semiconductor market reached US$468.8 billion in 2018, with a growth rate of 13.7%。

Semiconductor products can be divided into four categories: integrated circuits, optoelectronic devices, discrete devices and sensors. Among them, integrated circuits are the core of the semiconductor industry. As the leading type of semiconductor industry, since the birth of integrated circuits, the global semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth since the 1960s and 1990s. The development of the integrated circuit industry has been on the rise, but its production and demand are not stable. From the perspective of the year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor sales, the global semiconductor industry is roughly a “silicon cycle” for 4-6 years. The business cycle is closely related to macroeconomics, downstream application demand and its own capacity inventory。

In the past 20 years, the semiconductor market has experienced several ups and downs. The Internet bubble burst in 2000, causing the industry to adjust for two years. After accumulating energy, it will rise again in 2004. Since then, due to the introduction of 12-inch silicon wafers, the industry has started another round of capacity expansion competition. Until 2008, the global semiconductor market experienced negative growth, and in the first half of 2009, it fell sharply by 25%. With the rise of the terminal electronics market such as Apple's iPhone, iPad, etc., and the strong momentum, the semiconductor industry entered another historic high point in 2010. The semiconductor market has been hovering around $300 billion by 2016 and breaking through $400 billion by 2017. According to data from the Global Semiconductor Trade Association, the global semiconductor market reached US$468.8 billion in 2018, up 13.7% year-on-year. It is one of the fastest growing years since 2010。

From the perspective of the global semiconductor product market scale, memory has become the largest application area for two consecutive years。

From the perspective of specific products, in 2018, the market size of the four major categories of integrated circuits, discrete devices, optoelectronic devices and sensors was $393.3 billion, $24.1 billion, $38 billion, and $13.4 billion, respectively. The growth rate of the integrated circuit market fell by 14.59%; the growth rate of the discrete device market declined slightly, reaching 11.1%; the market scale of optoelectronic devices continued to grow, with a growth rate of 9.2%; the market size of the sensor dropped sharply, with a growth rate of only 6.3. %。

The integrated circuit products are divided into analog chips, microprocessors, logic chips and memories. In 2018, the market size was 58.8 billion US dollars, 67.2 billion US dollars, 109.3 billion US dollars, and 158 billion US dollars, accounting for 14.95% and 17.09 respectively of the integrated circuit market share. %, 27.79%, 40.17%. In 2018, the global memory market growth rate still led the way, reaching 27.4%; the analog chip market grew at 10.7%, the microprocessor market grew at 5.2%, and the logic chip market grew at 6.9%.

Judging from the scale of semiconductor markets in major countries and regions around the world, the scale and growth rate of China's semiconductor market in 2018 led the world. In terms of regional market structure, China accounted for a maximum of 33.8% in 2018, while the United States, Europe, Japan, and other Pacific Rim regions accounted for 22%, 9.2%, 8.5%, and 26.5%, respectively. In terms of growth rate, China still leads the world in 2018, with a growth rate of 20.5%, which is 6.8 percentage points higher than the global growth rate. The growth rates of the United States, Europe, Japan and other Pacific Rim regions were 16.4%, 12.3%, 9.3% and 6.1%, respectively.

From the perspective of the global semiconductor terminal application market scale, the two major segments of communication and computer in 2018 accounted for the largest proportion.

Communications and computers have already accounted for the largest amount of semiconductors in the world, accounting for 32.4% and 30.8% respectively in 2018. Benefiting from the popularity and application of next-generation communication technologies, the proportion of communication chips has increased from 21.2% in 1999 to 32.4% in 2018. The market share of computers has been replaced by emerging electronic products such as smartphones and tablets. The market share of computer chips has dropped from 50.4% in 1999 to 30.8% in 2018.

With the popularity of automotive electronics, electronic, electrification and intelligence have gradually become the trend of automotive semiconductor development, making the proportion of automotive semiconductors increase from 5.9% in 1999 to 11.5% in 2018. In addition, with the acceleration of the Global Industry 4.0 process, the increasing digitization, networking and intelligence of industrial equipment, the demand for semiconductors in the industrial sector is growing, and its proportion has increased from 7.6% in 1999 to 12% in 2018

The future of the global semiconductor market

The global semiconductor market grew by 13.7% to $468.8 billion in 2018, a record high. It is expected to decline by 3.0% in 2019 to $454.5 billion, and is expected to grow moderately and return by 2020.

It is expected that in 2019, the scale of applications in the US, Europe and Asia Pacific will experience negative growth after two consecutive years of strong growth. The memory market will decline by 14.2%, and the growth rate of other products will slow down.

The main factors driving the future development of the global semiconductor market include device innovation, technology innovation, and product innovation.

Device innovation. The semiconductor industry based on near-equilibrium physics has matured, and the semiconductor industry technology is approaching the limit. Although the current development of silicon-based CMOS technology, which relies on shrinking feature sizes, is experiencing more and more challenges, device innovations that do not rely on feature size are one after another. In particular, the development of MEMS devices and system-in-package technology (SIP) has led to a broader meaning of "integration" of integrated circuits. The discovery of graphene in 2004 provides the most probable path for the next generation of faster, larger, lower cost, lower power ICs. Although there are still many difficulties in the preparation of FETs (field effect transistors) using graphene, carbon-based integrated circuits may become one from the remarkable intrinsic electronic properties inherent in graphene and the progress in the development of graphene FETs in recent years. Important development trends.

Technological innovation. Compared to the past, silicon-based CMOS technology faces many unprecedented challenges. When transitioning from 28nm to 22nm, or even smaller feature sizes, the planar MOSFET is replaced by a stereo FinFET. To process finer line widths, EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography or electron beam lithography will replace the current 193 nm immersion lithography. From the scale of economic production, the use of 18-inch (450nm) wafers and the construction of a fully automated wafer line will be a new solution. It is conceivable that the semiconductor chip process will enter a relatively new era when the feature size is 5/3 nm or less.

Product Innovation. Product innovation is the eternal driving force for the development of the semiconductor industry. Even if Moore's Law tends to fail, product innovation is still the dominant factor leading the semiconductor industry to maintain rapid growth. At present, the world's integrated circuit products have experienced products of Tr (transistor), ASSP (standard general-purpose product), MPU (microprocessor), ASIC (dedicated IC), FPGA (field programmable gate array), SoC (system-on-chip). The feature cycle is currently transitioning to U-SoC (Super System-on-Chip). Every need for a new generation of information technology is likely to spark the birth of a new generation of semiconductor products